Additionally, in our analysis we found that participants changed their energy consumption behavior on both event days and non-event days. Upon completion of our evaluation, Opinion Dynamics provided PG&E with ex-ante load impact projections for the ten years following the evaluated year, supporting program planning efforts.
Better than smartday drivers#
In response to these findings, Opinion Dynamics incorporated a series of additional analyses within the evaluation to contextualize the declining trend in load impacts and identify the drivers of declining load impacts and their implications on future load impacts. Our analysis uncovered steadily declining load impacts and customer enrollment in the program.
We based our ex-ante impacts for future years on PG&E’s forecasts of program enrollment, development of weather-sensitive reference loads, and projections of per- participant load impacts that are estimated based on ex-post load impacts. Consequently, Opinion Dynamics provided PG&E load impact data in aggregate as well as by customer segments (e.g., technology type, low-income, local capacity area). Some of the most informative results that help to maximize program cost-effectiveness through targeted program marketing comes from knowing which segments of the population are most responsive to SmartRate™ price signals, as well as when and for whom to call events. We generated load impact ex post estimates for each hour of each of the fourteen SmartRate™ events, as well as ten-year ex ante forecast. Opinion Dynamics employed a quasi-experimental design to estimate load impacts and identify matched comparison groups with similar characteristics to event days as a baseline. Of particular interest to PG&E was understanding which customer segments drive impacts as well as the distributional impacts across customers to inform program delivery and support customer targeting. Opinion Dynamics completed a load and bill impact evaluation of PG&E’s SmartRate™ Critical Peak Pricing program to help PG&E forecast future program performance. This type of resource has become increasingly more relevant as California faces increasing grid demand, particularly due to increased temperatures and climate events. Typically, PG&E calls SmartDays™ when there is high demand and exceptionally hot weather. SmartRate™ is designed to help reduce load on the electric grid on days when resources are constrained. on event days (referred to by PG&E as SmartDays™). SmartRate™ is a rate plan that offers PG&E customers lower electric rates from June 1st through September 30th, except during the hours of 2:00 p.m.
One of the programs PG&E offers to help encourage customers to reduce summer electricity usage and the load on the power grid in California is their SmartRate™ Critical Peak Pricing program. Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E), one of the largest dual-fuel utilities in the US, serves over 5 million electric customers and 4.4 million natural gas customers.
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